The Comprehensive Economic Modeling and Forecasts

To counter the narrative of guaranteed success, proponents of the visitor economy brought forward university-backed economic modeling. This quantitative analysis offered a sobering counterpoint to the humanitarian arguments, providing hard figures on the potential financial contraction should the TVR phase-out proceed as planned.

Projections on Tourism Revenue and Associated Job Sectors. Find out more about Maui County Council Bill Nine first reading update.

Economists projected that the removal of nearly half of the island’s short-term accommodation inventory—those approximately seven thousand targeted units—would lead to a substantial and immediate contraction in overall visitor spending. The estimates circulated during committee discussions indicated a projected annual decline in visitor expenditures amounting to nearly $900 million dollars. That is a staggering figure to absorb into the local economy. This predicted reduction in tourism revenue, in turn, was conservatively forecast to result in the direct loss of approximately 1,900 jobs across the sectors reliant on that visitor spending, creating a direct employment crisis in parallel with the housing solution the bill seeks to implement. Furthermore, the models factored in a significant predicted drop in revenue streams for the county itself, specifically citing potential decreases in property tax collections, transient accommodations taxes, and various related fees, all of which impact the funding available for public services, including those necessary for ongoing disaster recovery.

Anticipated Impact on the Real Estate Valuation Landscape

One of the most striking predictions from the economic analysis concerned the valuation of condominium properties, particularly those currently operating as short-term rentals within the affected apartment zones. The model suggested that as these units lose their ability to generate high transient income, their market value would experience a significant downward adjustment. Specific figures mentioned indicated that condominium prices in these areas could potentially contract by a range of twenty percent to forty percent. This dynamic creates an almost impossible financial dilemma. While this drop would *theoretically* make ownership more accessible to local buyers seeking long-term residences, it represents a massive, immediate erosion of wealth for current property holders, many of whom purchased or refinanced based on the existing income-generating potential of their units. The core tension is whether wealth destruction for one group is a necessary, justifiable prerequisite for housing affordability for another. It forces a difficult conversation about equity in crisis. Understanding the nuances of property investment is key here; a primer on managing real estate investment risks might offer a broader lens on this kind of market shock.

Looking Ahead: The Path to Final Adoption and Future Zoning Considerations. Find out more about Maui County Council Bill Nine first reading update guide.

The legislative landscape is now set. The first reading’s successful passage has set the stage for the final, decisive action. The debate is not over; it is simply entering its most critical, high-stakes phase.

The Scheduled Second and Final Legislative Review Date. Find out more about Maui County Council Bill Nine first reading update tips.

The Maui County Council has formally scheduled the second and final reading of **Bill Nine, CD One, Final Draft One**, for **December 15, 2025**. This upcoming session will be the last opportunity for the council to debate, amend, and ultimately vote on whether to send the legislation to the executive branch for the mayor’s signature, thereby enacting it into law. Given the intensity of the debate already witnessed—the hours of testimony, the split vote, the personal appeals—this final reading is anticipated to be equally, if not more, significant. Positions, following the initial procedural vote, are likely solidified. The procedural steps are clear, but the outcome hinges entirely on whether the majority that voted in favor on December 1st remains united or if any last-minute legal or political maneuvers sway the necessary votes required for a final majority approval. The council leadership, including Chair Lee, has clearly called for continued engagement while urging respect throughout the process.

Companion Proposals for Specialized Hotel and Transient Use Districts

Recognizing the sheer complexity of transitioning such a large segment of the rental market, and heeding the recommendations put forth by the investigative group tasked with studying the issue—the Temporary Investigative Group (TIG)—the legislative calendar includes a parallel track of consideration. On **December 19, 2025**, following the scheduled final vote on Bill Nine, the council is slated to take up proposals intended to create entirely new zoning designations: specifically, the **H-Three and H-Four hotel zoning districts**. The purpose of these companion measures is to provide a structured, legal alternative for a specific subset of properties that may otherwise be forced out of the vacation rental market entirely. The consensus among many on the council appears to be that moving certain properties—perhaps those that meet specific spatial or community impact criteria, or those deemed unattainable for local residents even if converted—into these new, purpose-built hotel districts could allow them to continue operating legally as transient vacation rentals under stricter parameters. This approach is the legislative body’s effort to create a more nuanced and multi-faceted solution. It attempts to satisfy the housing goal of Bill Nine while potentially preserving some vital, specialized tourism infrastructure, offering a “like-for-like” swap of apartment zoning for outright hotel use permissions for select parcels.

Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights for Residents and Owners. Find out more about Maui County Council Bill Nine first reading update strategies.

The drama surrounding Bill Nine is the embodiment of a community trying to rebuild while simultaneously fighting for its identity. As we look toward the final vote on December 15th, here are the most critical takeaways and actionable insights for anyone whose life or livelihood is tied to this island:

• The Catalyst is Real: The primary driver for Bill Nine is the humanitarian crisis stemming from the 2023 wildfires, which destroyed over 5,400 homes and amplified the existing housing shortage. This context frames the entire debate as an emergency response.
• The Potential Supply Shock is Massive: If enacted, the bill is projected to convert up to 7,000 TVR units into long-term housing, equating to roughly a decade of typical new development and representing a 13% increase in the housing supply.. Find out more about Maui County Council Bill Nine first reading update insights.
• Economic Risks Are Quantified: Opponents forecast nearly $900 million in annual visitor spending decline and the loss of about 1,900 jobs if the TVRs are phased out completely. Property valuations in affected zones could drop by 20% to 40%.. Find out more about Converting short-term rentals to long-term Maui housing insights guide.
• The Legislative Clock is Ticking: The final vote on Bill Nine is scheduled for December 15, 2025. The fate of thousands of units hangs on this single procedural reading.
• A Safety Valve Exists: The parallel proposals for the H-3 and H-4 Hotel Districts suggest a legislative path for *some* properties to retain TVR status under new, stricter zoning parameters. This is a crucial area to watch for affected property owners.

Actionable Steps Moving Forward

For residents weary of the housing crunch, the message is clear: the final vote on the 15th is your last major opportunity to voice your support for permanent residential conversion before the bill either passes or fails this legislative cycle. Contact your council representative, especially those who voted against the bill on the first reading, and share your personal story of displacement or unaffordability. For property owners whose units are currently classified as TVRs in apartment districts, the next week is critical. Your immediate focus should be on tracking the developments regarding the H-3 and H-4 zoning proposals, which will be considered on December 19th. Understanding if your property falls under the TIG’s recommended criteria for rezoning is paramount to securing long-term certainty for your investment. If you have not yet done so, consulting with legal or planning professionals familiar with the Maui County zoning attorneys who specialize in these regulations is no longer optional—it is essential. This is more than a policy debate over short-term rentals; it is a fundamental discussion about the future identity of Maui. Will it remain a place where families who have lived here for generations can afford to stay, or will it continue down a path that hollows out its residential core for transient economic benefit? The answer will be decided in the coming days. What do you believe is the right balance between preserving our island’s people and its paramount economic driver? Share your thoughts below—the legislative process is far from over.